Key developments in the past four months
- In 2019, passenger transport logged approximately 1.3 million hours, valued at USD4 billion. Demand will fall in 2020 by 11% and remain flat in 2021. The need for the longer-range medium and large helicopters could increase as activity moves farther offshore and into harsher regions that lack infrastructure, but any true recovery will come after 2022.
- Forecast supply will be flat at 1,565 helicopters in 2024.
Key supply chain implications
- Despite the expectation at the end of 2019 that the oversupply was beginning to wane, the deterioration of market conditions will likely result in a driving down of utilization for the next two quarters, or perhaps more, even if no orders are delivered. Utilization rose in 2019 to nearly 85%. However, it will fall in the face of deteriorating market conditions. The average utilization over the outlook period will be 70%. If all cold-stacked helicopters, excluding the EC225/H225, were to reenter the market, it would drive the average utilization down to just over 65% through the forecast period.
- Bristow Group and Era Group completed their merger, making them the largest offshore helicopter supplier for offshore crew transport.
Glossary and financial terminology
Market segment definitions
Cost model methodology
Market segment cost models—Q2 2020